Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 1.339138 1.407278 1.477787 1.556357 1.641659 1.731685 1.834161
2025-11-09 1.220424 1.315047 1.416921 1.535359 1.670035 1.819342 1.998687
2025-11-16 1.141790 1.250560 1.370772 1.514595 1.683486 1.877434 2.119858
2025-11-23 1.091847 1.211797 1.347237 1.513202 1.713500 1.950676 2.257855
2025-11-30 1.057053 1.186721 1.335902 1.522624 1.753614 2.034967 2.411783
2025-12-07 1.013389 1.148018 1.305219 1.505358 1.757979 2.072967 2.506975
2025-12-14 0.969964 1.107066 1.269139 1.478457 1.747234 2.089212 2.572323
2025-12-21 0.936455 1.076338 1.243632 1.462657 1.748578 2.119615 2.656924
2025-12-28 0.919725 1.065145 1.241269 1.475326 1.786511 2.199390 2.814489
2026-01-04 0.898460 1.047246 1.229400 1.474612 1.805877 2.254112 2.939174
2026-01-11 0.885468 1.039019 1.229131 1.488546 1.844994 2.337603 3.111868
2026-01-18 0.866184 1.021987 1.216684 1.485367 1.859854 2.386793 3.235370
2026-01-25 0.846179 1.003850 1.202709 1.480266 1.872763 2.435349 3.364598
2026-02-01 0.821424 0.978822 1.178844 1.460640 1.863949 2.451072 3.442034
2026-02-08 0.798406 0.955307 1.156095 1.441439 1.854460 2.464629 3.516110
2026-02-15 0.783682 0.942158 1.146618 1.440149 1.870707 2.518032 3.661934
2026-02-22 0.773593 0.934746 1.144471 1.448869 1.901856 2.596132 3.857942
2026-03-01 0.755050 0.915524 1.125622 1.432888 1.894789 2.612442 3.943364
2026-03-08 0.734223 0.892720 1.101212 1.407975 1.872855 2.603100 3.979840
2026-03-15 0.718000 0.875719 1.084309 1.393333 1.866003 2.617964 4.063219
2026-03-22 0.711677 0.871912 1.085486 1.405074 1.900577 2.703793 4.292880
2026-03-29 0.701474 0.862525 1.078537 1.404412 1.915308 2.756440 4.461611
2026-04-05 0.696206 0.859728 1.080701 1.417321 1.952185 2.849635 4.724927